August 29, 2018How might our nation’s continually changing demographics play into the 2018 midterms and beyond? Our Representing US project includes 22 demographic variables about each of the nation’s 435 congressional districts, paired with data from the 2016 general election (and subsequent special elections). Here are some insights from an analysis of the data: Democrats dominate among “majority minority” districts; Republicans dominate among congressional districts with White majorities. Republicans do well in older districts; Democrats do well in younger districts. Republicans do well among lower unemployment and higher income districts. Democrats tend to do better in highly educated congressional districts. Nine in 10 districts are represented by someone from the same party that they preferred for president.
August 2, 2018The United States population is projected to be bigger, older, and more diverse by 2060, according to the latest Census Bureau projections. How might this country’s composition change between now and then, its 284th birthday? The share of the population who is at least age 65 will increase from about 1 in 7 today to 1 in 4 by 2060. That same year, just over 1 in 3 children are projected be non-Hispanic White. Meanwhile the U.S. population is projected to grow to 404 million, nearly one-quarter larger than today’s 326 million residents.
July 19, 2018In The Who’s classic song, “My Generation,” Roger Daltrey wails, “I hope I die before I get old.” Personally, I hope GenXers, Millennials, and even the emergent Generation Z will vote before they get old. This year is projected to be the first that there are more Millennials of voting-age than Baby Boomers in the U.S. electorate. However, youth is wasted on the young, and for many, so is the right to vote. Our new nonpartisan Representing US project reveals where each generation’s influence is greatest, assuming they vote.
May 30, 2018The manicured greens on the college quads have largely emptied out, as another batch of hopeful graduates has earned their degrees. Which makes it a good time to consider key trends impacting the college experience: Who’s going, who’s graduating, and what sort of labor market are grads entering after tossing their mortarboards in the air? In 10 states and Washington, D.C., recent college grads face lower unemployment rates than the overall U.S. rate. And newly minted English majors face the highest unemployment rates among the 20 most common majors.
May 24, 2018Now that we are several states into the primaries, with the mid-term elections nearly upon us, there couldn’t be a better time to review some fundamentals about political polling. Major media outlets and many survey research firms have a strong reputational incentive for investing in solid surveys. Still, some pollsters and media outlets have either partisan motivations, more interest in attention than credibility, or both. We should all beware of polling results that seem too good (or too bad) to be true—especially those that may circulate on social media with little information concerning who did them or how they were done.
May 16, 2018Just a week after the announcement that the nation’s unemployment rate had hit its lowest level since late 2000, I spent a day immersed in some of the latest and greatest research ultimately aimed addressing labor market weaknesses at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank.
May 4, 2018The U.S. process for family-based or “chain” migration is complex. While the system allows for relatives to migrate to the United States for family reunification, it is far from an open-door policy. There are backlogs for family-sponsored visas ranging from two to 23 years depending on country of origin, family member being sponsored, and status of the sponsor.
April 20, 2018When used in a demographic context, natural change refers to the answer to a basic population equation: births minus deaths. Of the 42 states who saw population growth in 2017, more than half of them (23) have natural change—not migration—to thank for the majority of their growth. The youthful states of California (+214,000), Texas (+210,000), and New York (+73,000) lead the nation in natural increase in the latest year. And Utah’s nation-leading birth rate helped it lay claim to the title of 3rd fastest growing state in 2017.
April 11, 2018The answer to the question of whether school districts decrease, replicate, or increase inequality is “Yes.” Or, more precisely, it depends on which district you are talking about. New research reveals that third graders in districts with high average reading and math test scores will not necessarily see bigger (or smaller) gains by eighth grade than will third graders in lower-scoring districts. But even the most effective school districts are only able to help their third graders achieve one extra year of growth by eighth grade.
March 21, 2018International migration is the most variable part of the equation for population change--as federal immigration policies and procedures, changing global economic conditions, and numerous other causes can dramatically change the flows of people into (and out of) the U.S. In 2017, front-runner state California gathered up 165,000 net international arrivals in 2017, ahead of Florida (+144,000), New York (+130,000), and Texas (+110,000). Not a single state saw more international arrivals in 2017 than in 2016, a reversal of otherwise climbing international migration figures over the decade, for nearly all states.